The 2006 Hurricane name list is as follows:

Alberto
Beryl
Chris
Debby
Ernesto
Florence
Gordon
Helene
Isaac
Joyce
Kirk
Leslie
Michael
Nadine
Oscar
Patty
Rafael
Sandy
Tony
Valerie
William

WILMA
Wilma is the 12th hurricane of the season, tying the record for the most hurricanes to form in an Atlantic season.
There were 12 hurricanes once before in 1969 since record keeping began in 1851.
Wilma is also the 21st named storm of the six-month hurricane season, which ties another record set in 1933.
VINCE
The former Category One hurricane weakened to a tropical storm October 9 and became a tropical depression October 11.
The National Hurricane Center says Vince was the first tropical cyclone to make landfall in Spain.
Vince was the 11th hurricane of the season, and the 20th named storm.
TAMMY
Tammy was downgraded to a depression last week, spreading moderate rain across Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee and the Carolinas.
Tammy was the 19th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season, which began June 1 and ends Nov. 30.
STAN
Stan was downgraded to a tropical depression October 5.
NORMA
Norma was downgraded to a tropical depression September 28.
RITA
Rita was the 17th named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season.
PHILIPPE
Tropical Storm Philippe was downgraded to a tropical depression on September 23.
Maximum winds were 30 miles per hour.
Philippe was named a tropical storm on September 17.
It became a hurricane on September 18.
It weakened into a tropical storm again on September 20.
KATRINA
Tropical Storm Katrina was named on August 24.
Katrina makes first landfall August 25th, north of Miami.
The Category One hurricane caused flooding and 1,069 deaths across the Gulf Coast.
Hurricane Katrina strengthened to Category 5 storm on August 28.
Hurricane Katrina came ashore at the Louisiana-Mississippi border around daybreak Monday, August 29.
Flooding August 30th from hurricane and breached levees in New Orleans swamped the city.
Hit South Florida earlier in August.

TS Cindy and TS Dennis - interim updates.

Use the sidebar on the home page to get the latest news about current tropical Atlantic Information.

As of this writing (Tuesday, the 5th, early afternoon) TS Cindy will make landfall within 24 hours near the LA / Mississippi boarder. the Phamily evacuation plan does not need to be implemented at this time.

The forcast for TS Dennis may be of a little more concern. The long range forcast (3 - 5days) currently indicates that there is a chance of Dennis affecting Southern Florida, and the Florida Gulf coast, including Ft. Meyers, Naples, Tampa, Clearwater, and the surrounding communities. Whats more the forcast is for Dennis to be a Hurricane, and the potential exists for it to be a major hurricane.

We have Phamily willing to take evacuees in Central, East, and Northeast Florida (out of the affected areas) if it is needed. those of you who think you might be heading away from home, or those of you wanting to join the Phamily network and offer space, please contact us, as soon as you make the decision, so we can help make arrangements and get directions for you.


--- 11 am Dennis Forecast from NHIC follows -------

NOAA PRESS RELEASE

NOAA: 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Outlook
Issued: 16 May 2005

Atlantic Hurricane Outlook & Seasonal Climate Summary Archive

SUMMARY
NOAA’s 2005 Atlantic hurricane season outlook indicates a 70% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 20% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. This outlook is produced by scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Hurricane Research Division (HRD), and National Hurricane Center (NHC). See NOAA’s definitions of above-, near-, and below-normal seasons.

The outlook calls for 12-15 tropical storms, with 7-9 becoming hurricanes, and 3-5 of these becoming major hurricanes. The likely range of ACE index is 120%-190% of the median. This prediction reflects a very likely continuation of above-normal activity that began in 1995.

The predicted 2005 activity reflects 1) an expected continuation of conditions associated with the tropics-wide multi-decadal signal, which has favored above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995, and 2) an expected continuation of warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean than can be accounted for by the multi-decadal signal alone. The outlook also reflects the expectation of ENSO-neutral conditions (no El Niño or La Niña) during August-October, the peak months of the hurricane season. An updated Atlantic hurricane outlook will be issued in early August.

issued April 2005

According to Colorado State University's William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach, the upcoming "hurricane season" will be busier than usual in the Atlantic Basin. They also see an above-average probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.

"Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons".

PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:

* Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)
* U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)
* Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)
* Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean

Full Outlook Follows

Names for the 2005 Hurricane Season - The Season Begins on June 1!

Arlene
Bret
Cindy
Dennis
Emily
Franklin
Gert
Harvey
Irene
Jose
Katrina
Lee
Maria
Nate
Ophelia
Philippe
Rita
Stan
Tammy
Vince
Wilma

It looks like thater are going to be more people in need after this storm than with the others (certainly this is a result of damage already sustained from the previous storms). Attached is a list of agencies and locations for up-to-the-minute relief efforts.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Web site offers suggestions for preparing for a hurricane and remaining safe after a hurricane hits.

The American Red Cross Web site includes tips for hurricane preparedness and a list of chapters in Florida. There is also a link for donations.

The U.S. government's National Hurricane Center offers updates on active storms every three hours at 2, 5, 8 and 11 a.m. and p.m. Eastern time. The site also includes projected paths and current satellite and radar images.

A real-time road tracker from Florida's emergency management division gives information on congestion, closures, accidents and lane reversals.

The Federal Alliance for Safe Homes, a nonprofit organization, has safety tips to help owners of damaged homes stay safe and protect against further damage. It also offers tips on how to file insurance claims for flood damage.

MyFlorida.com, the state government Web site, offers the latest official announcements, status updates, and links to other online resources.

Floridadisaster.org is the home page of the state's emergency management division, and includes telephone numbers of relief organizations and links that allow users to donate or volunteer to relief efforts.

Florida Jaycees Disaster Relief Foundation Upon receiving word of the severe amount of devastation and the lack of immediate assistance to the area, the Florida Junior Chamber of Commerce took action. Over 160 chapters from Panama City to Key West, with hundreds members, banded together to bring relief. Within twelve hours of this natural disaster, semi truck loads of food, water, ice, and blankets were being distributed, not at centers, but on the streets where they could do the most good. For many weeks the Florida Jaycees fully supported the victims of the worst hurricane our state has known in years, and Jaycees from as far as Iowa sent load upon load of supplies, while many other Jaycee state organizations sent funds.

Hurricane Jeanne apparently has made a decision as to where she's headed. And it's the east coast of florida. We have about 48 hours to finish preparations, about 36 hours from now Northeast Florida will be gin to feel the effects of Jeanne, weather will degrade rapidly after that.

More southern areas of Florida (in particular, the areas near where Frances made Landfall, and just to the north of that) could see effects beginning Saturday morning.

the forcast tract has the storm affecting (and travelling) along the entire florida east coast, northward. Currently there is a Hurricane Watch extending from florida city in the south north to St. Augustine. The watch areas will likely be extended at 5 pm, and some warnings may go up either at 5 or at 11pm tonight.

Attached is the 2 pm advisory

Know What Hurricane WATCH and WARNING Mean

* WATCH: Hurricane conditions are possible in the specified area of the WATCH, usually within 36 hours.
* WARNING: Hurricane conditions are expected in the specified area of the WARNING, usually within 24 hours.

Prepare a Personal Evacuation Plan

* Identify ahead of time where you could go if you are told to evacuate. Choose several places--a friend's home in another town, a motel, or a shelter.
* Keep handy the telephone numbers of these places as well as a road map of your locality. You may need to take alternative or unfamiliar routes if major roads are closed or clogged.
* Listen to NOAA Weather Radio or local radio or TV stations for evacuation instructions. If advised to evacuate, do so immediately.
* Take these items with you when evacuating:
o Prescription medications and medical supplies;
o Bedding and clothing, including sleeping bags and pillows
o Bottled water, battery-operated radio and extra batteries, first aid kit, flashlight
o Car keys and maps
o Documents, including driver’s license, Social Security card, proof of residence, insurance policies, wills, deeds, birth and marriage certificates, tax records, etc.

Newest Hires image of Ivan available. There is no dening that it's a pretty storm - and a deadly one (click image for a larger view)




The links to the right of the Phoenixfestivals.com / jaxpagan.com home pages have the current National Hurricane Information Center Advisories. As of this writing, the long - distance forecast is for Ivan to hit Mainland florida as a Cat-4 storm on Tuesday or Wed. The Keys could be impacted as early as Sunday.

Mandantory Evacuations of all the Florida Keys began for Tourists this morning, for Residents in Manufactured homes (including Mobile homes and R.V.'s) this evening at 6:00 pm EST and for all residents beginning 8:00 am tomorrow morning (Friday the 10th of September)

Winds as of 2:00pm September 9th were at 160 mph, location was approx 360 miles southeast of Kingston, Jamaca. Traveling west - Northwest at 13 mph.

The Storm is expected to hit Jamaca on Friday, then track northwest into Cuba, and on into the Florida keys after that.

This will be the Fourth Named storm to Impact Florida this season, and follows very rapidly on the heels of Frances, which dropped a lot of water (up to 12 inches of rain in some areas.) The potential strike area includes areas already hit hard by hurricanes Charlie and Frances. Storm preparations shold be made by everyone in the strike area now, as supplies are already strained due to the prior storms.

2004 Atlantic Hurricane Names
[Storm Name] - (highest SS Rating) - Area endangered or Initial impact location
Alex - (Cat 3) Hit North Carolina
Bonnie - (TS) Hit Florida
Charley - (Cat 4) Hit Florida
Danielle - (Cat 3) No US Hit
Earl - (TS) No US Hit
Frances - (Cat 4) Hit Florida
Gaston - (TS) Hit South Carolina
Hermine - (TS) Hit Mass
Ivan - (Cat 5) Hit Mississippi, Alabama and Florida
Jeanne - (Cat 3) Hit Florida
Karl - (Cat 3) No US Hit
Lisa - (Cat 1) No US Hit
Matthew - (TS) Hit Louisiana
Nicole - (TS) No US Hit
Otto
Paula
Richard
Shary
Tomas
Virginie
Walter

Not a threat to Florida - The southern coast of South Carolina is forcast to take the hit. Current Advisories for tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin are posted on the front page (bottom of the right hand column) of the Phoenixfestivals website.

--Wade


TROPICAL STORM ALEX INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 4A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT SUN AUG 01 2004

...THE FIRST TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM CAPE FEAR TO CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO SOUND. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
CAROLINA TO CAPE FEAR NORTH CAROLINA.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE HAS STRENGTHENED INTO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX...THE FIRST NAMED STORM OF THE 2004 NORTH
ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON.

As Of Saturday Morning:

Yes, it's a big cat -3 and will be a cat - 4 this evening in all likelyhood. At this time, the storm is forcasted to pass well south of the Tampa Area, and we expect minimal direct impact on the event. However, we have frends and family in south florida and the keys, and we are sending postitve energy their way.



Should the storm change track, please call us at the riverboat club: 813-996-6008 for an update on the event scheduling. Once again, though, we wish to emphasis that there is no change to AutumnMeet's schedule at this time.