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issued April 2005
According to Colorado State University's William M. Gray and Philip J. Klotzbach, the upcoming "hurricane season" will be busier than usual in the Atlantic Basin. They also see an above-average probability of a major hurricane making landfall in the U.S.
"Information obtained through March 2005 indicates that the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season will be an active one. We estimate that 2005 will have about 7 hurricanes (average is 5.9), 13 named storms (average is 9.6), 65 named storm days (average is 49), 35 hurricane days (average is 24.5), 3 intense (category 3-4-5) hurricanes (average is 2.3) and 7 intense hurricane days (average is 5.0). We expect Atlantic basin Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) activity in 2005 to be about 135 percent of the long-term average. The probability of U.S. major hurricane landfall is estimated to be 140 percent of the long-period average. We expect this year to continue the past-decade trend of above-average hurricane seasons".
PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY 3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS:
* Entire U.S. coastline - 73% (average for last century is 52%)
* U.S. East Coast Including the Florida Peninsula - 53% (average for last century is 31%)
* Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville - 41% (average for last century is 30%)
* Expected above-average major hurricane landfall risk in the Caribbean
Full Outlook Follows
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| Dr. Gray's Outlook for Hurricane Season 2005 | Login/Create an account | 0 Comments |
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Festival Quote: Oh god, Rowans writing it down! 
